PUTIN: WE’VE WON!
As the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, sources indicate that Moscow is preparing to announce a victory in the ongoing war, possibly as soon as this week.
According to Kyiv’s military intelligence agency, the GUR, Russian officials are expected to frame the victory not only as a triumph over Ukraine but also as a broader win against NATO. This announcement comes at a time when tensions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former U.S. President Donald Trump have reached a boiling point.
The Countdown to ‘Victory’:
February 24, 2025, marks the third year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although the roots of the conflict stretch back to 2014, when Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea and backed separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk. According to the GUR, Russia may declare a “victory” to coincide with the anniversary, even though the situation remains far from resolved on the ground.
In fact, Moscow’s propaganda machine has long depicted the war as a direct confrontation with NATO, further suggesting that the Kremlin intends to frame this declaration of “victory” as a win over the entire West.
A Divisive Political Moment in the U.S.:
The timing of this potential announcement comes amid a growing political feud between Donald Trump and Zelensky. Trump has taken a harsh stance against Ukraine’s leadership, accusing Zelensky of exacerbating the conflict, despite Russia being the aggressor. In response, Zelensky has claimed that Trump is being manipulated by Russian disinformation.
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In one of the most controversial moments, Trump labeled Zelensky a “dictator without elections,” despite the fact that Zelensky won over 73% of the vote in Ukraine’s 2019 elections. Trump’s remarks escalated tensions, and in a stunning show of support for the former president, Elon Musk criticized Zelensky, claiming that he was running a “fraud machine feeding off the dead bodies of soldiers” and suggesting that Ukraine’s president was avoiding elections because he knew he would lose. Musk’s comments further fueled the growing rift between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Russia’s Strategic Moves:
Ukrainian intelligence officials have also revealed that Russia’s disinformation campaigns are ramping up, as they attempt to destabilize Ukraine internally and undermine the support it receives from Western allies.
These efforts include spreading false narratives about Ukraine’s leadership and accusing its military of being incompetent at the frontlines. Additionally, Russia is attempting to present itself as a reasonable actor willing to engage in peace negotiations while painting Ukraine and its allies as the true aggressors.
The GUR also reported that Russian operatives are working to exploit growing diplomatic efforts from the U.S. to bring about an end to the war. Moscow hopes to strengthen its position by portraying itself as a peaceful nation looking for compromise, while sidelining any discussion about the brutal annexations and war crimes committed during the conflict.
Putin’s forces are also targeting Ukraine’s internal stability by sowing confusion about the legitimacy of Zelensky’s government, which, despite facing immense pressure, remains in power with widespread support.
U.S.-Russia Talks and the Growing Threat of Disinformation:
In recent days, U.S. and Russian representatives met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the possibility of ending the war, excluding Ukrainian officials from the dialogue.
This meeting has raised concerns among European and Ukrainian leaders, who fear that a peace deal brokered by Washington may unduly favor Russia and reward Putin’s military aggression. Trump’s apparent disdain for NATO and his calls for Ukraine to hold elections—despite the war situation—further complicate diplomatic efforts.
European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have voiced their concerns about Trump’s handling of the conflict. Macron plans to meet with the U.S. President at the White House soon, urging him not to appear weak in the face of Putin’s demands.
A Bleak Future for Ukraine’s Democracy:
While some Ukrainian officials, such as Lt-Gen Kyrylo Budanov, have suggested that a ceasefire could happen this year, the prospect of long-lasting peace remains uncertain. “I think a ceasefire regime will happen, but how effective it will be, that is another question,” Budanov said. The destruction caused by the war, along with the occupation of vast swaths of Ukrainian territory, makes the future uncertain.
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In the middle of all this, Russia continues its push for Ukraine to hold elections, even though much of the country remains in ruins and large portions are controlled by Russian forces. Zelensky has made it clear that holding elections under these circumstances would be impractical, and his government’s legitimacy remains intact, with recent polls showing his approval rating at 57%.
Wider Context and the Future of the Conflict:
The history of the Russia-Ukraine war goes back to long-standing geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West. The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked the beginning of a series of escalations, and the 2022 invasion further highlighted the growing conflict between Russia and NATO-backed Ukraine. Moscow’s efforts to weaken Ukrainian sovereignty and expand its territorial control have sparked widespread condemnation from Western nations.
The future of this war depends not only on military actions but also on the diplomatic strategies that can be employed by Ukraine and its Western allies.
Despite ongoing peace talks, the disinformation campaigns and shifting allegiances continue to make progress difficult. There is a growing fear that if Russia’s “victory” is recognized on the global stage, it would embolden the Kremlin to pursue further territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe.
Conversely, the resolve shown by Ukrainian forces and international partners may lead to a broader alliance for peace, making this one of the most pivotal geopolitical moments in recent history.
While Russia’s ambitions remain aggressive, Ukraine’s future depends on its ability to counter Russian narratives, reclaim lost territories, and continue to secure Western support. The international community’s commitment to a free and democratic Ukraine will be tested in the coming months as both sides prepare for what could be a turning point in this long-standing conflict.