Climate Change Conflict: The Role of Mediation

In the article below, Paul Sills, a mediator and arbitrator from the United Kingdom, predicts the future of governments and business in the face of climate change. He also discusses the role mediation can play in dealing with it.

In order to frame the discussion, I’d like to ask you about climate change and how it impacts on the legal system. What conflicts are you expecting to become more frequent as climate change effects worsen?

Climate change will cause a surge in legal disputes around the globe. These disputes will often revolve around issues which, up until recently, were considered peripheral but have now become central to millions of lives and the stability of countries.

Paris Compliance: Since 2015, much of the climate litigation around the world has been a result of efforts by NGOs to determine via courts what it means to “Paris-compliant”. The Paris Agreement does not provide much guidance as to what it means for a country to comply with the 1.5degC or 2.0degC goals. The courts have been asked by NGOs, and they will continue to be asked.
Displacement and migration: The displacement of people is one of the immediate effects of lack of water, rising sea level and extreme weather conditions. The coastal areas and low lying islands are particularly vulnerable. Legal battles will be fought over the rights of refugees, border disputes, and obligations for nations to accept and integrate those displaced.
Resource Conflicts: As scarce resources such as fresh water decrease, conflicts will increase over their distribution and use. Water disputes that cross borders could be a source of litigation. Water rights disputes between countries sharing the same river could lead to international conflict.
Property and infrastructure damage: As extreme weather events such as droughts, hurricanes and floods become more frequent, they cause greater damage to private property and infrastructure. Underwriters will be less willing to cover these damages and will modify their policies to exclude them.
Corporate Accountability: As global concern about environmental degradation increases, corporations who contribute to significant carbon emissions and pollution of the environment will be subjected to increased legal scrutiny. It will include not only legal action against the polluters, but also shareholder disputes over a company’s environmental approach.
Land Loss and Sovereignty: The rising sea levels will submerge certain territories, resulting in disputes over land ownership or national sovereignty. This could have an impact on maritime boundaries, economic zones exclusive and access to marine resource.
Public Health Litigation: Climate Change has indirect health effects, such as the spreading of vector-borne disease. Affected individuals or communities may file a lawsuit against the entities that they believe are responsible. This could be local governments, industries or nations.
Violations of human rights: The repercussions of climate change are being presented as human rights issues. If a government fails adequately to protect its citizens against the predictable harm of climate changes or does not provide sufficient support after extreme events, this could be seen by some as a violation of human rights. Refer to the recent Montana court ruling.
Conservation and biodiversity: Climate Change threatens many species. There will be legal battles over habitat protection, conservation techniques and the rights of indigenous groups linked to these eco-systems.
Agriculture and trade: Changes in climatic patterns can affect agriculture resulting in crop failures or lower yields. It could lead to trade disputes, challenges related food security, exports and imports. It is especially true as we see the geopolitical resurgence after decades of geoeconomics.
Regulatory disputes and compliance issues: As countries establish stricter regulations to combat climate changes, industries are likely to challenge them in court, leading to long-lasting legal battles about the nature and extent of regulations, and what a just transition to energy means.

These disputes will influence policies and behaviors at the national and international level, but also define rights, obligations and responsibility of entities from individuals to local communities and global conglomerates.

You’ve said elsewhere that conflict is essential for growth. What significance do you anticipate the climate-related conflicts to be?

Climate change could lead to global conflict at a level we’ve never seen before. Policymakers, strategists, and scholars are concerned about its impact on peace and security in the world. Understanding the potential impact of climate change on global conflict can be done by looking at its multiple impacts on human societies.

Climate change has direct impacts on human livelihoods. Loss of agricultural land as a result of desertification or coastal flooding will cause food shortages. In the same way, a decrease in freshwater resources can exacerbate tensions already present in regions with limited water. This can lead to large-scale displacements of people, resulting in what is called ‘climate refugee’s’. Migration of populations may lead to clashes based on ethnicity or resources in host regions such as the EU.

Many fear that the potential impact of climate change-exacerbated conflicts could surpass past conflicts, including World War II. Take the religious conflicts of the 16th-17th centuries. While these wars were devastating and had a significant impact on society, they were primarily driven by ideology and regionally concentrated. Climate-induced conflicts, on the other hand, would be driven by both ideologies and resources, and span continents due to the global nature.

Climate change could lead to a global conflict of a magnitude we haven’t seen before.

It is important to be realistic, but not fatalistic. The worst effects of climate changes – and the conflicts they might cause – are still preventable, unlike the inevitable wars of the past rooted in deep animosities. Climate change will be a major catalyst for conflict in the future, depending on how the global community responds to it. Diplomacy and sustainable development, as well as international cooperation, are crucial in preventing potential conflicts. As the world struggles with the effects of climate change, it also needs to prepare for the implications on global peace and security.

What role will mediate play in this situation? Do you think that ADR is going to be adopted more widely as a way of addressing new conflicts?

Climate change requires an immediate, unified global response. It is inevitable, given its multidimensionality – involving nations, corporations and indigenous communities as well as NGOs – that conflicts and disputes will arise. Mediation and other ADR techniques, such as facilitated negotiations, conciliation, and arbitration, can be crucial in resolving these disputes.

These techniques can help us reshape the way we approach climate change by promoting global collaboration, dialogue, and action.

Promoting international collaboration: The climate change is a global problem that transcends borders. The problem is not limited to the borders of any one country, but is rather a global issue that requires collaboration and mutual understanding. Mediation brings parties with different goals together. A neutral mediator can help nations and entities, including a wide range of stakeholders, work toward mutually beneficial resolutions, while building trust and understanding. Mediation can be used in situations where states are hesitant to litigate due to the potential loss or power dynamics. It can create a collaborative atmosphere that emphasizes shared interests rather than confrontation.
Promoting constructive dialogue: Conflicts over climate change are often rooted in deeply held beliefs and historical grievances, as well as complex policy frameworks. The disputes could involve a developed country with a large carbon footprint versus a developing nation that is seeking economic growth, but vulnerable to climate changes. They could involve indigenous communities or multinational corporations. Dialog is essential in such a diverse setting. ADR processes and mediation in particular emphasize open communication and consensus-building, allowing the parties to voice their concerns, understand other viewpoints, and explore innovative solutions together. This dialogue-centric method is essential for breaking deadlocks and clearing up misunderstandings.
Proactive and swift action: Climate change is a pressing issue that requires rapid resolution of disputes. The traditional litigation process can be lengthy and polarizing. ADR can be much faster and flexible. By addressing conflicts at an early stage, facilitated negotiations can help prevent conflict from escalating. ADR focuses on practical solutions, rather than long-drawn legal battles. This allows for more time to be spent on the implementation of measures than on debating.
Inclusive and cost-effective: ADR, in particular mediation and facilitation of negotiation, may be more affordable than litigation. Parties with less resources, like smaller nations or grassroots organizations, can take part on an equal basis. They are more likely to have their voices heard, which is important in discussions about climate change.
Customised solutions and capacity building: Mediation allows for tailored solutions to a dispute. Mediation can provide tailored solutions that are not based on a single-size-fits all approach. Instead, it is able to cater for unique cultural, environmental, and economic contexts. The process of mediation itself can provide parties with the skills and frameworks they need to engage in future negotiations. This will enhance their ability to have constructive dialogues during subsequent conflicts.

ADR and mediation techniques are vital tools for encouraging global cooperation, dialogue, and action in the fight against climate change. Mediation is a process that, because of its inherent values, can be used to resolve disputes that may arise in the face of climate change.

What can ADR, ADR organizations, and legal counsel do to prepare themselves for this paradigm change? What new knowledge and skills are essential in the wake of this paradigm shift?

The ADR, mediators, and legal counsel must be prepared to meet the new challenges. The following are some of the measures and skills that will be required to adapt to this new environment:

Specialised Training: Mediators, lawyers and other legal professionals should have a deeper understanding of climate science and international environmental law as well as related geopolitical issues and socioeconomic concerns. It is essential to be familiar with international climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement and understand the complexities of emission reduction, carbon credits and sustainable development. ADR bodies need to offer seminars, workshops, and training courses for professionals to navigate the complicated terrain of climate disputes.
Cultural Competence: Climate Change disputes often span continents. Mediators and attorneys should develop cultural sensitivity in order to bridge the gap between parties with different backgrounds. Respecting and recognizing cultural differences can create an atmosphere of understanding and trust, which are essential for successful mediation.
Focus on collaborative solutions. Traditional legal paradigms that are win-lose do not work well for climate-related disputes. It is crucial to focus on collaborative, win-win solutions. ADR bodies must create frameworks to facilitate the design of dispute resolution processes that prioritize mutual benefit and shared goals.
Multi-stakeholder Engagement: Due to the wide range of parties that are involved in climate disputes – from governments to NGOs and indigenous communities – mediators and legal advisors need to be skilled at multi-stakeholder involvement. They must be able to integrate and balance diverse perspectives in order to create holistic solutions. Process design is crucial.
Fluency in technology: Professionals must be tech-savvy. Online mediation platforms, data-analysis tools, and virtual communication are all useful for improving the efficiency of ADR.
Active outreach: ADR organizations should actively promote mediation as a solution to climate-related disputes. They can raise awareness of ADR and promote it as the preferred method to resolve climate-related disputes by partnering with academic institutions, environmental organizations and media outlets.
Ethical considerations The ethical aspects of climate change will play an important role in disputes, from intergenerational equality to rights of nature. Mediators and legal counsel must be able to navigate through these morally complex issues with integrity and clarity.
Lifelong learning: Due to the dynamic nature in climate science and policy it is important that professionals commit themselves to continuous learning. Professionals will stay at the forefront with regular updates, refresher classes and engaging in the latest research. ADR bodies play a crucial role in this.

Mediators, ADR bodies, and legal counsel must be proactive, flexible, and committed to a shared goal: fostering global cooperation and sustainable solutions.

How can technology be used to combat an increase in climate-related disputes and disagreements?

Technology offers a wealth of opportunities to enhance mediation and ADR procedures, especially with the rise in climate-related disputes. Here are some ways that technology can be used effectively.

Platforms for virtual mediation: As disputes are increasingly globalized, parties can be located on different continents. Remote access is possible with virtual mediation platforms, which ensures that geographic boundaries are not an obstacle to resolution processes. Online mediation has a global reach and is a great alternative to in-person mediation.
Data analysis and modelling:Climate disputes are often based on complex datasets such as emission levels, rates of deforestation or carbon offsets. Data analytics can be used to help parties make predictions, understand trends and evaluate the impact of solutions. Geographic information systems (GIS) can also visually represent environmental data to provide a better understanding of localised issues.
The blockchain for environmental agreements. The technology of the blockchain can be used to provide transparent, tamperproof records about environmental commitments and actions. Blockchain can be used to verify emission standards or track carbon offset credits. It can also increase trust between disputing parties.
AI conflict analysis: AI is able to analyze vast amounts of data in order to identify areas of agreement or conflict. AI can speed up the mediation process by identifying areas where conflicts are likely to arise and highlighting common objectives.
Platforms for e-learning: These platforms offer modules that provide training on climate science, environmental conventions, and cultural nuances. This provides mediators and parties the necessary knowledge.
Social media engagement and stakeholder participation: Platforms such as X (Twitter), Facebook, and LinkedIn can help gather stakeholder opinions or ideas. They can also be used to disseminate relevant information regarding ongoing mediation processes. This is especially true for large-scale disputes involving community rights or public interest.
Feedback mechanisms and digital surveys: Postmediation feedback can be invaluable in refining ADR procedures. Digital surveys provide valuable insights on what worked and what didn’t, as well as how to improve the process. The iterative feedback ensures that ADR methods evolve to match changing climate dynamics.
Collaboration Tools:Software such as Slack and Microsoft Teams facilitates real-time communication between mediation teams. They can share resources, coordinate strategy, and keep each other updated on progress. This is especially useful in complex multi-stakeholder mediator mediations.

The technology available today can make ADR and mediation processes more transparent, adaptive, and efficient.

Do you have any other comments to make on climate change and mediation?

Climate change is a challenge that highlights the interconnectedness of nations and local communities. As the world warms up, conflicts are likely to grow, and mediation will become more important.

To address global existential issues, we need to improve mediation practices and the design of conflict engagement processes. In this context consensus building and collaborative efforts become imperatives to survival.

The path to success is not easy. In a world of increasing geopolitical tensions and pressures, when national interests are often at odds, it is difficult to create a shared vision. This friction is what makes skilled mediators so important.

Climate change is a global issue that demands nations to rise above temporary politics and engage in a genuine dialogue. Mediators with the right tools can navigate these treacherous seas, and facilitate conversations that prioritize our shared human heritage.

Climate change presents an opportunity to renew our commitment to each other and the planet in a time of growing division. Mediation can be a source of hope for this global endeavor by encouraging consensus and collaboration.

Paul Sills Arbitrator & Mediator

Arbitra international

100 St Paul’s Churchyard London, EC4M8BU, UK

Tel: +44 02079 367070

E: [email protected]

Paul Sills is a leading international arbitrator and mediator with more than 27 years’ experience in litigation, which often involves multiple parties and complex commercial issues. He is often called upon to determine or resolve complex multi-party conflicts. Paul teaches International Commercial Arbitration as part of the LLM program at the University of Westminster. He was also named by WWL a Global Leader for mediation in 2022-2023.

Arbitra internationalis an organisation that helps lawyers, general counsels (GCs) and parties-appointed tribunals find the right arbitrator or mediator. Arbitra is a member organization for independent arbitrators, adjudicators, dispute board members and mediators.